Neither Juventus nor Napoli are likely to catch Inter Milan for the Serie A title this season, but the top four race in Italy has heated up in recent weeks

As the Champions League kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday, there’s no better aperitif than Juventus hosting Napoli in a make-up match early in the season’s Italian teams are tied with 56 points, which means that the winner of this match could overtake Atalanta and take third place in the table

The analytical community has been waiting for this season to come to Juventus, where the old lady would underperform her underlying numbers and eventually fall back into the squad in the Italian top flight

In recent seasons, Juventus have survived the expected goal outperformance and stood for league titles This year things are different Juventus is running under its numbers and is in fact underrated on the market for the first time in years

I showed the old lady a lot more value than I usually would in a big public team and a favorite like Juventus

For example, Juventus have taken a point from their last six games, but they have been very unlucky in these cases.The club won on xG via an 18-03 margin against Benevento, but suffered a 1- loss. 0

The Old Lady had a 22-08 xG against Torino, but settled for a 2-2 draw The narrative asks what’s wrong with Juventus, but the answer isn’t much at all

Once again, I support Juventus to get all three points in this home game Juventus will not have center-back Merih Demiral or Leonardo Bonucci due to COVID-19 protocols, but they have two capable substitutes in Matthijs de Ligt and Georgio Chiellini to slip into the lineup

Juventus should be able to put an end to Napoli’s counterattacks quite effectively He has the best defense in Serie A with almost three xGAs in advanced metrics

Napoli manager Gennaro Gattuso was in the hot seat, as his side tumbled onto the table He was also easily knocked out of Coppa Italia by Atalanta, and was fired from the Europa League game from the side Spanish centerpiece, Granada

However, Partenopei have recorded much improved results and performance since then to place themselves firmly in the top four As AC Milan slips, it’s a four-way battle for the last three places in the Champions League next season

In their last six league games, Napoli have won five and drawn once The club had 11 xG against just 65 xGA in this range Napoli has on average the most shots in the division per game, but they don’t tend to be high quality chances

The problem with this approach against Juventus is that the Old Lady has been the most vulnerable to direct attacks, conceding greater chances thanks to the block There is no doubt that Gattuso will prepare to strike his nemesis at the counter far from home, but his side will face resistance as Juventus do not allow the kind of progressive carries Napoli will need to execute their style.

Napoli have one of the best center-backs in the world to face crosses at Kalidou Koulibaly which will help them keep Juventus out of danger zones

Koluibaly and Kostas Manolas are one of the main reasons Napoli have one of the lowest press rates in Serie A, while allowing very few passes to be made in their penalty area Napoli will let the assists be played in their final third, but won’t allow many of them to be completed inside the box

Once again I’m showing value on Juventus in this place and I love that they take all three points in this game Napoli’s attack will have a hard time generating great scoring chances and will be blocked seeing his counters collapse

My projections indicate that Juventus have odds of -140 on the silver line, which I would play against the old lady at -125 or better

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Source: https://www.actionnetwork.com/soccer/wednesday-serie-a-betting-odds-picks-predictions-juventus-vs-napoli-april-7